Sen. Wendy Davis (R-Fort Worth) should be announcing her decision to either seek re-election or run for governor in 2014. The decision was delayed by the passing of her father, and frankly, she should take all the time she needs. But once she’s ready to announce her decision, that will set in motion a series of other decisions by Democrats in Texas, possibly starting with Sen. Leticia Van de Putte (D-San Antonio), who some speculate is contemplating running for Lt. Governor. While a few other Democrats have announced plans, it’s nothing like the free-for-all in the Republican Party right now. Maybe that’s an indicator 2014 is really not the year for Democrats in Texas.
Democrats in Texas are really itching for someone big to run statewide in the next statewide election. After two decades without a statewide victory, the party has been floundering trying to find an identity in a state that has continued to turn redder than the blood red portion of the Lone Star flag.
One Democrat, Rep. Mike Villarreal (D-San Antonio), has already decided to avoid 2014, possibly opting for 2018 instead. Some, including myself, had targeted Villarreal as a good candidate for Comptroller. His tenacity with and knowledge of the state’s overly complex budget, coupled with a common sense view of spending, made him a perfect fit for the office.
I imagine he’s been eyeing it himself. But since state representatives are on a two-year election cycle, he would have to pick either running for re-election, a safe bet in his progressive district, or take a chance tackling the Republican challenger in the general election. Villarreal opted for the safe path, possibly giving him more time to vet the idea and garner more support for the future.
Turning back to a possible David-Van de Putte ticket for statewide, even with this powerhouse duo of female Democratic senators, the money required to fight AG Greg Abbott, the expected Republican contender, will be substantial. Abbott has already amassed upwards of $30 million for the race and is not expected to spend too much in the primary against former Workforce commissioner Tom Pauken.
But Davis and Van de Putte are going to have to spend much more than just typical campaign cash in the fight. Since Democrats have been in the wilderness for over two decades, about $15-20 million will probably be needed just to get enough statewide name recognition for the fight. That puts the estimated campaign coffer at about $60-75 million, a figure pretty daunting for Texas Democrats unless some outside money flows into the state.
Texas has long been considered an ATM machine for the Democratic Party, with Texas Democrats conceding the fact their money can be used more effectively elsewhere. Now those same Democrats are going to have to keep the money at home and try to convince Democrats nationwide it’s time to return the favors that have been given over the past decade or so.
Having a San Antonio Democrat, local entrepreneur Henry Munoz, as the party’s finance chair will help a lot. Other national celebrities from Texas such as Eva Longoria and our own Mayor Julian Castro could also help turn the money spigot around. But that effort will be touch, with many in the party looking at a mid-term election where defense of the Senate is paramount.
But even if Texas Democrats field a star power team at the top, the chances of winning in this state in 2014 are pretty slim and Democrats know that. Locally, they are going to be pressed to fund candidates for county and legislative offices to keep some firewall in place to avoid a complete red-washing of the state.
That could lead to a conflict between the state office and the local organizations. Add Battleground Texas into the mix and you’ve got as much a mess on the blue side as there is on the red side of the dance, just different conflicts.
One strategy I’ve proposed that probably doesn’t sit well with the “Hail Mary Dems,” the ones that just can’t bear to see a primary go wasted or a candidate unsacrificed, is to focus on flipping a few local legislative seats and maybe pick up a county or two. I’ve tested this approach with a few sound politicos and they all agree it makes perfect sense. Of course, that’s usually what typically dooms a good plan.
If you consider that Texans are starting to see the downside of gutting the state every biennium, from poorly funded educational programs to gravel roads outside the urban areas, then maybe this is the time to make the case for stemming this tide in 2014. Barring any major challenges, we can expect to see more of the same and possibly worse in 2015.
Tea party folks have started to find a new voice thanks to the grandstanding of Sen. Ted Cruz and a statewide slate that is trying hard to be as conservative as possible, short of Attila the Hun. That pressure will most likely force anyone with a moderate bone in their body out of the Republican primary.
Barring any strong challenge from Democrats, those primary winners will march right into Austin in January, 2015, giving us a legislative session destined to rival the most conservative in the nation. Republicans will try hard to one up themselves this coming session, claiming a mandate from the people in their quest to slash more and offer less.
But that means the Texas Democratic Party will have to actually gut some egos and take a long game approach. It means some candidates are going to have to tune out the whisperings of political consultants and overeager party activists, many of whom have never really run a good campaign in their life.
It means Texas Democrats should probably sit out the 2014 statewide races and focus on cleaning up the house locally. But I just don’t see that happening.